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October 21, 2025

Bank Dunia katakan kecil kemungkinan krisis di Indonesia

Bank Dunia katakan kecil kemungkinan krisis di Indonesia
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Jakarta, Zonasatu News  – Bank Dunia menilai, kendati dihadapkan pada risiko penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi akibat gejolak ekonomi global, peluang terjadi krisis keuangan di Indonesia relatif kecil.

“Pada 2018, Indonesia berada di posisi yang lebih kuat. Sekarang Indonesia memiliki fundamental ekonomi yang lebih kuat,” kata Direktur Bank Dunia untuk Indonesia dan Timor-Leste Rodrigo A Chaves saat peluncuran Laporan Kuartalan Ekonomi Indonesia di Jakarta, Kamis.

Rodrigo menuturkan, ketidakpastian global yang meningkat akibat perang dagang dan juga dampak dari krisis yang terjadi di negara-negara berkembang, di tengah normalisasi kebijakan bank sentral AS The Fed, memang telah menyebabkan keluarnya porfofolio dari pasar di negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia.

Keluarnya arus modal menyebabkan imbal hasil obligasi tenor 10 tahun naik 121 basis poin di kuartal kedua hingga mencapai 8,2 persen. Rupiah pun terdepresiasi 4,8 persen terhadap dolar AS di kuartal kedua, ditambah 2,7 persen pada Juli dan Agustus.

Merespon peningkatan volatilitas pasar keuangan global, Bank Indonesia menaikkan suku bunga acuannya hingga 125 basis poin sejak Mei 2018.

“Itu menjadi sinyal komitmen bank sentral terhadap stabilitas, meskipun inflasi 3,3 persen alias masih di bawah target Bank Indonesia,” kata Rodrigo.

Sementara itu, Lead Country Economist Bank Dunia Frederico Gil Sander, walaupun pertumbuhan ekonomi masih menghadapi risiko penurunan, terjadinya gejolak krisis keuangan di Indonesia relatif minim seiring dengan komitmen pemerintah menjaga stabilitas.

“Risiko yang terkait dengan krisis keuangan di Indonesia tetap kecil karena koordinasi kebijakan yang kuat dan fundamental ekonomi yang juga lebih kuat, terutama jika dibandingkan dengan periode Taper Tantrum pada 2013 dan Krisis Keuangan Asia 1998,” ujar Sander.

Sander menuturkan, Bank Indonesia memperketat kebijakan moneternya dengan menjaga perbedaan tingkat suku bunga acuannya dengan AS, sehingga diharapkan mampu “menjinakkan” terjadinya arus modal keluar.

Dari sisi pemerintah, defisit dan tingkat utang juga dijaga tetap rendah dimana utang pemerintah kurang dari setengah dari ambang 60 persen dari PDB, dan 57 persen dalam mata uang Rupiah.

“Yang terpenting, dengan fokus mempertahankan stabilitas, pemerintah diperkirakan akan melanjutkan kebijakan pengetatan untuk membendung arus modal keluar, bahkan jika itu membebani pertumbuhan,” kata Sander. (sumber : antara)

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