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Eep Saefullah Fatah : 3 Kemungkinan Jalan Menuju Titik Balik Jokowi

Eep Saefullah Fatah : 3 Kemungkinan Jalan Menuju Titik Balik Jokowi
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Oleh: Eep Saefullah Fatah
(Direktur Eksekutif Polmark Indonesia)

Setiap petahana menghadapi ancaman titik balik. Ketika titik balik itu sudah menggejala, biasanya sulit bagi sang petahana untuk “rebound”.

Potensi titik balik itulah yang saat ini dihadapi oleh Presiden Jokowi. Ada setidaknya tiga kemungkinan jalan bagi titik balik Jokowi.

(1) Krisis Otentisitas. Ketika mulai menjabat, sosok Jokowi sebagai “Presiden” adalah sebuah mitos — tak terukur. Sekarang “Presiden Jokowi” sudah menjadi sesuatu yang historis. Teraba. Terukur. Bisa dinilai.

Orang pun sudah bisa menilai seberapa otentik kah dirinya. Apakah yang dikatakannya adalah yang dilakukannya? Apakah memang ia semerakyat yang dikesankannya?

Jika Jokowi makin kehilangan otentisitasnya, maka daya magnet elektoralnya pun bakal meluntur. Ini bahaya yang saat ini sedang mengancam Jokowi.

(2) Gagal Kebijakan. Ketika “orang-orang” merasa kebijakan Presiden Jokowi tak membikin hidup mereka lebih baik, maka makin sedikit alasan bagi mereka untuk memilih Jokowi kembali.

Yang saya maksud sebagai “orang-orang” ini adalah mereka yang bergelut penuh keringat dengan hidup mereka — bukan pengamat atau analis yang “pintar” merumuskan keadaan sesuai selera mereka.

Dalam Pilpres 2014 Jokowi bisa menjual “akan”, “hendak”, atau sekadar “rencana”. Sekarang, dalam Pilpres 2019, ia hanya punya opsi jualan: “sudah” dan “sedang”. Dulu Jokowi bisa menghadapi pemilih dengan janji, sekarang hanya bisa dengan bukti.

Sepanjang perjalanan menuju 17 April 2019, Jokowi harus menghadapi orang-orang yang menilainya sebagai pembuat kebijakan yang gagal. Semakin besar himpunannya, semakin tegas titik balik Jokowi.

(3) Krisis Representasi. Ketika orang-orang yang paling dirugikan oleh keadaan merasa tak dipihaki, tak dibela, tak diwakili, maka mereka akan menolak Jokowi secara militan. Ironisnya, semilitan itulah mereka dulu mengelu-elukannya. Inilah krisis representasi.

Krisis representasi itu berpotensi melahirkan “protest voters”: Pemilih yang marah dan melawan serta mengekspresikannya dalam pilihan mereka pada 17 April 2019.

Wallahu a’lam bish-shawab.

(11-02-2019)

 

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